Update, Mar 2003
FERC have ruled that there was in fact illegal price-manipulation in the
electricity market, and have levied over a billion dollars in fines.
El Paso have agreed to pay $1.7 billion over 20 years to settle charges
about natural-gas market manipulation.
The totals add up to much less than California had been asking for,
but are still significant (around $4 billion).
How about my predictions?
The jury is still out on this one. I did not set a time frame; I
meant to say "within a decade or so", so I have until 2011.
Brief note, added Apr 2007: sure enough, prices climbed
like crazy as soon as freezes expired. New freezes were
instituted in places like Maryland, where Baltimore prices were
going to jump 72% but were limited instead to 15%; those are
now set to expire soon and prices are set to jump another 50% or
California's experience will repeat in other states.
There is still more smoke than flame in this area. Again I will give
it ten years to come true.
Distributed generation, especially combined heat and power systems, will
This has already occurred, albeit not in great numbers. The California
PUC are still working on a ruling about `exit fees' and whether they
should apply to solar PV systems.
More homes will be built with solar PV systems.
All contents are copyright © 2003 Chris Torek